Collection #02

Strategy Information

The collection “Strategy Information” is essentially about one core question:

How do strategic decision-makers recognize and use signals of meaningful change before it becomes obvious?

Everything in the collection connects back to that.

Most organizations are overwhelmed with information but underprepared for uncertainty. The challenge is not simply detecting signals. It's learning what counts as meaningful, when it becomes important, and how your organization should respond. It requires its own process and sponsor. Under uncertainty, that is incredibly hard to organize and do.

In this collection:

Research objects exploring weak signals, emerging patterns, noise vs signal, sensing biases, expertise and other filtering mechanisms, organizing the strategic information process; all under uncertainty (e.g. unstable systems)

Intro Video #02.04.01

Definition #02.01.01

Why do we use weak signals?
→ to recognize potentially significant change earlier under uncertainty

Weak signals are part of…
→ strategy information, just like customer & competitor data

Weak signals are caused by..
→ changes in direction, scope, or meaning of existing developments or new interaction effects between developments

Weak signals can be compared to…
→ radar blips, outliers in data, smoke (indicating a fire)

Weak Signals are fragmented early indications of potentially significant change whose meaning, direction, or future impact remains uncertain.

Examples of weak signals:
→ AI copilots, robotics adoption, hydrogen ambitions of nations

Weak signal scanning leads to:
→ earlier adaptation, better strategic positioning, reduced threats

Weak signal scanning consists of:
→ horizon scanning, signal unchunking, pattern recognition, impact analysis

How do we use weak signals?
→ as inputs for strategic decisions about innovation, strategy formation, transitions, employability, etc.

Concept Cards #02.01.01-04

Information Processing

Several activities shape how information becomes meaningful over time. Strategic meaning emerges gradullay through information processing activities such as:

Filtering → What gets noticed.
Accumulation → Small developments form a pattern.
Interpretation → Meaning is assigned.
Linkage → Connections between developments become visible.

A tree filters the sunlight, illuminating only parts of the creek

Filtering

Organizations systematically filter information, but prioritize familiar information like KPI's, operational urgency, and existing assumptions. As a result, disruption remains outside the focus until its too late.

What gets noticed -->

Prints of human and animal footsteps in the wet sand together tell a story

Accumulation

Weak signals rarely become meaningful in isolation. Their significance often emerges when separate developments begin reinforcing each other across systems.

Finding patterns-->

Where we see an autumn leaf that needs to be raked, a frog sees a shelter from the rain

Interpretation

The same signal can be interpreted as noise, anomaly, threat, opportunity, incident or structural transformation. Strategic meaning depends on interpretation.

Using meanings -->

An invisible network connects the mushrooms on an old tree trunk

Linkage

Small developments can become strategically significant when they begin interacting across domains and systems. The hidden relationships are important to find.

How linkage works -->

Assignment #02.06.01

Field Observation

Use this week to observe these core dynamics in your organization's information gathering process.

Explainer Video #02.04.02

Fieldnote to consider #02.05.01

The first signals of systemic change often appear outside the system we think is changing.

Flashcard #02.03.01

Diagram showing how weak signals grow into strong ones over time

Flashcard #02.03.02

Diagram showing how the process of sense making of signals goes. From gathering to unchuncking, pattern recognition and linking the meaningful patterns to decisions

Examples #02.02.1-3

Manifestations

Common ways weak signals show up across systems, sectors, and scales.

DVD by mail

At first this looked like a niche logistics experiment, but it signaled changing media consumption away from TV

Picture of original Netflix offering to send DVD's by mail

Food photo's sharing

Before Instagram culture exploded, people casually photographing food looked socially trivial and even ridiculous, but since 2004 they shared photo's massively online on Flickr

Excursions

Initially interpreted by many incumbents as:
an expensive niche luxury toy, but it signaled battery acceleration, EV desirability, and software defined cars

Exercise #02.06.02

Which Assumption Is Aging Fastest?

Ask your team: Which assumption behind our strategy feels increasingly unstable?

Think about assumptions on: customer behavior, labor availability, energy costs, trust, growth, infrastructure, expertise or regulation

Applying These Ideas

The concepts in this collection have been used in executive education, technology foresight projects, innovation ecosystem studies, and strategic decision-making exercises.

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