COLLECTION #01
Unstable Systems
Unstable systems are organizational environments that remain seemingly functional while gradually losing their ability to absorb pressure, adapt coherently, or maintain long-term structural integrity.
As instability deepens, systems often adapt locally in ways that preserve short-term functioning while increasing long-term fragility. This creates the illusion of stability precisely when systems are becoming more vulnerable.
Many contemporary challenges are not isolated problems but symptoms of systems operating near the limits of their adaptive capacity.
As instability deepens, systems often adapt locally in ways that preserve short-term functioning while increasing long-term fragility. This creates the illusion of stability precisely when systems are becoming more vulnerable.
Many contemporary challenges are not isolated problems but symptoms of systems operating near the limits of their adaptive capacity.
In this collection:
Research objects exploring system drift, false stability, adaptive fragility, delayed consequences, and the hidden tensions preceding systemic change.
Explainer video #01.04.01
Concept Cards #01.01.01-04
Core Dynamics
Recurring dynamics shape how systems absorb instability until something gives. Here are four of them.
Assignment #01.06.01
Field Observation
Use this week to observe these core dynamics in your organization's environment (its system).
Explainer video #01.04.02
Fieldnote (to consider) #01.05.10
Strategic failure often begins with solving problems in isolation rather than taming the big picture
Examples #01.02
Manifestations
Common ways instability shows up across systems, sectors, and scales.
Resource Strain
Demand outpaces regenerative capacity, increasing structural pressure over time.
Examples
Groundwater depletion
Housing shortages
Power grid strain
Examples
Groundwater depletionHousing shortagesPower grid strain
Congestion
Flows exceed system capacity, creating backlogs, delays, and brittleness.
Examples
Traffic delays and maintenance backlogs
Health care backlogs and demographics
Power grid congestion and subsidies
Examples
Traffic delays and maintenance backlogsHealth care backlogs and demographicsPower grid congestion and subsidies
Structural Gaps
Missing buffers and capabilities leave systems exposed to disruption.
Examples
ICU capacity before and after the pandemic
Critical skills in emerging technologies
Weak data infrastructure and hacks
Examples
ICU capacity before and after the pandemicCritical skills in emerging technologiesWeak data infrastructure and hacks
Rising Volatility
Small fluctuations grow in magnitude and frequency, reducing the reliability of the system
Examples
Climate change & flooding
Energy price volatility
Information bubbles and polarization
Examples
Climate change & floodingEnergy price volatilityInformation bubbles and polarization
FLASHCARD SERIES #01.03
Weak Signals
Swipe to see some early indicators that instability is accumulating in the system.
MISSION BRIEF #01.06.02
Scenario Thinking
Think about your organization's context and market (its system). Imagine the year is 2032.
For years, the system worked exactly as expected.
Then several small disruptions started interacting with each other (see example block).
Nothing collapses overnight, but the system becomes harder to predict.
For years, the system worked exactly as expected.
Then several small disruptions started interacting with each other (see example block).
Nothing collapses overnight, but the system becomes harder to predict.
--> What changes would most people notice too late?
Example Block
Combine at least two disruptions:
- Energy prices remain structurally volatile
- AI automates part of the workforce faster than expected
- Extreme weather disrupts logistics several times per year
- Younger workers avoid certain sectors
- Infrastructure investments lag behind demand